2009 World Baseball Classic - Pool B Preview

If you want proof that this thing was jerry-rigged to ensure the best teams advance and the first round is a silly formality, Pool B is your proof
How, exactly, are Mexico and Cuba connected to Australia and South Africa?

Mexico was lumped into a pool with Canada and the U.S. three years ago and as a result, Canada very nearly kept the US and Mexico from advancing

The solution?
Break the regional teams up to make sure everyone advances and give us that bitter Mexico-Australia rivalry in the first round!

Cuba

MLB Players
None, because defection to the US is grounds for exclusion from the national team

Keep an Eye on
Let's be honest here, given the strict reins placed on the team, there's some big gaps in what we know about these guys
On their official WBC roster, eight players are actually listed without an age
Even so, what we know for sure is that Yuliesky Gourriel is the star of the club
He hit well in the 2006 WBC, when he was 22 and scouts were describing him as a "first round talent"
They've also got Frederich Cepeda, who was one of their top hitters in both the 2006 WBC and the 2008 Olympics, and Pedro Luis Lazo, their longtime closer who wears No 99 and has some nasty stuff

Outlook
They have to win
Because they can't leave to play in America without defecting, Cubans play baseball for international competition and this is the highest level, especially with the Olympics out of the picture for now
They'll certainly advance, and if they don't advance to the final round, this tournament can only be considered a crippling disappointment for them

Mexico

MLB Players
Luis Ayala, Jorge Campillo, Oliver Perez, Joakim Soria, Elmer Dessens, Rod Barajas, Jorge Cantu, Adrian Gonzalez, Edgar Gonzalez, Jerry Hairston Jr., Augie Ojeda, Freddy Sandoval, Alfredo Amezega, and Scott Hairston plus ex-big leaguers Dennys Reyes, Ricardo Rincon, Rodrigo Lopez, Karim Garcia, Oscar Robles, and Erubiel Durazo

Keep an Eye on
It's hard to find an under the radar player on a club packed with so much past and present big league talent, so let's use this as an X-Factor section instead
This is one of those teams that isn't packed to the gills with talent, but could beat anyone under the right circumstances
I'm curious to see how they use Joakim Soria, because he was a starter in the minors and has some awesome stuff, even if he's strictly a closer in the bigs
I wonder if they won't stretch him out a bit, because besides him and Oliver Perez, who can beat anyone, the pitching staff is a little thin
That's the thing though, between Perez, Soria, and Adrian Gonzlez, this is a team that can be dangerous

Outlook
Like Cuba, they'll certainly advance through to the second round
I don't think they're deep enough to go beyond that, though, unless the ex-big leaguers really step their game up
If the second round were single-elimination I might have them as a darkhorse for the finals, and I do think they'll surprise a team or two along the way, but I don't think they have enough depth to keep up in a double-elimination format

Australia

MLB Players
Travis Blackley, Drew Naylor, Rich Thompson, Joel Naughton, Brad Harman, and Luke Hughes plus ex-Big Leaguers Damian Moss, Justin Huber, and Chris Snelling

Keep an Eye on
I don't know how much he'll pitch in the WBC, but Liam Hendriks put together a pretty awesome year in the Gulf Coast League as an 18-year-old for the Twins in 2007
A back injury kept him out of all of 2008
Mitch Dening put up some decent numbers for the Red Sox's NY-Penn League affiliate in 2008, so he might be an interesting prospect as well
Those two are probably the best big-league prospects on the Aussie roster, and since the big-league talent they have is middling, you might as well keep an eye on these guys

Outlook
When I was a kid, my aunt and uncle and two cousins lived in Australia
They knew I was a big baseball fan, so they mailed me some Australian baseball cards
I thought they were the coolest thing in the world, but when I brought them to school to show my friends, everyone just looked at me like I was crazy
I think that about summarizes the Aussie team here
There's a few interesting players, but they're mostly too young to make any real noise

South Africa

MLB Players
None

Keep an Eye on
Mpho Gift Ngoepe was recently signed by the Pittsburgh Pirates after a good showing at the European Baseball Academy last summer
He's young and fairly raw, but he clearly impressed the Pirate scouts that watched him in Europe
There are a few other South Africans in Major League systems including Alessio Angelucci, Justin Erasmus, Dylan Lindsay, Hein Robb, and Anthony Phillips, but they're either off to terrible starts in their pro careers, or I can't find anything interesting about them

Outlook
I just don't see how this team is beating anyone in their pool

Pool Outlook

Who will advance
Cuba and Mexico
It'll take a miracle for it to be anyone else

Darkhorses
I guess there's an outside chance that Australia loses to Mexico in the first game, then beats South Africa and shocks Mexico in a rematch, assuming Mexico loses to Cuba in the winner's bracket game
If that's how it plays out, Australia would advance
That seems like an awfully long shot to me
This also exposes the weirdness in the scheduling
If Australia beats Mexico in their first game, they'd then face (presumably) Cuba and would then play Mexico again after a loss
So by winning their first game, the road to the second round gets exponentially tougher
I don't think any of this makes a difference in this pool, since Mexico and Cuba are clearly better than Australia and South Africa, but it could come into play in another pool